According to the report released at the end of the 81st Euroconstruct Conference held in June in Dublin, it is estimated that GDP will grow by 1.9% per annum for the 19 Euroconstruct countries in the three years 2016-2018. The year 2016 will see the GDP of the 19 member countries grow by 1.8%, a forecast which is slightly below the 2% projected in December 2015, while growth of 1.9% is foreseen for 2017. Notably, the year 2015 was the first time in eight years that all Euroconstruct countries recorded an increase in GDP, a development which is expected to continue over the next three years.
Growth in total construction output for both 2014 and 2015 have been revised downwards from the Budapest projections last December, as 2014 saw output increase by 1.1% (as opposed to 1.3%), while 2015 saw growth of 1.4% (as opposed to 1.6%).
Overall construction output in 2016 is expected to improve by 2.6%, although this is below the forecast outlined last December. An unchanged growth forecast of 2.7% is estimated for 2017, followed by growth of 2.4% in 2018, which is an improvement on the forecast of 2% growth outlined at the Budapest conference.
The Central and Eastern European countries are expected to achieve the greatest gains from 2015 onwards. Factors ranging from improving real household disposable income, low interest rates, and the European Commission’s Investment Plan for Europe are expected to contribute to the modest overall average growth in construction investment of 2.6% per annum over the coming year in the Euroconstruct Area. Public finance constraints and public and private debt levels will continue to act as a constraint on public and private investment.
The overall value of the construction industry itself it estimated to be €1.406 billion in 2016. This equates to 9.4% of GDP and is significantly lower than the peak of 2007, where the industry accounted for 13% of GDP.
- Read the compleate article published on Tile International 2/2016
